The war against Iran launched by Israel and the Trump administration is already having profound effects on travel and tourism in the Middle East, and it could get worse.
A new analysis from Tourism Economics estimates that inbound arrivals to the region could decline by 11 to 27 percent in 2026 as a direct result of the war, depending on how long it takes to resolve the conflict.
In December 2025, Tourism Economics had predicted 13 percent growth in travel to the Middle East.
“In absolute terms, this would mean a range of 23 to 38 million fewer international visitors compared to our previous forecast, and a $34 to $56 billion loss in visitor spend,” according to the report from Director of Global Forecasting, Helen McDermott, and Senior Economist, Jessie Smith. “This includes expected lingering sentiment impacts beyond the immediate conflict period.”
Gulf Cooperating Council nations, specifically Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, could suffer “as they are the largest destinations in the region which have previously relied on perceptions of safety and stability,” the report noted, although the war also is likely to have a larger impact on regional nations that are direct parties to the conflict, namely Iran and Israel.
The war will also have a ripple effect globally, since about 14 percent of international flights transit through airports in the Middle East, the report noted. The sudden launch of major combat operations by the United States and Israel this week has led to widespread cancellations of flights and cruises and, for travelers already on the ground in the region, a scramble to get out of the war zone.
While nations like Great Britain moved quickly to mobilize evacuations for its stranded citizens in the Middle East, the U.S. State Department has been widely criticized for advising Americans to leave 16 nations in the region immediately, but, as of press time, seemingly lacking a plan to facilitate evacuations.
