Visitation to the Asia-Pacific region should reach pre-pandemic levels by 2028 if—and it’s a big if—geopolitical and economic volatility eases, the Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) predicts.
The new PATA Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2026-2028 projects that inbound arrivals to the region will total 761.2 million by 2028. However, if current global uncertainty persists, international arrivals may only reach 599.7 million by 2028, PATA estimated—about 85 percent of the pre-pandemic peak.
“We recognize both sides of the equation—the positive momentum driven by strong regional demand, and the downside risks arising from geopolitical tensions, economic volatility, and climate-related disruptions,” according to PATA. “In this environment, growth is no longer linear or guaranteed. Destinations and organizations must be prepared for multiple scenarios, with the ability to adapt quickly, recalibrate strategies, and respond with agility.”
PATA Report Details
The report includes inbound visitor forecasts for 39 Asia Pacific destinations. By 2028, 27 of the destinations are expected to surpass their pre-pandemic arrival volumes under the more optimistic modeling.
Mongolia, Japan, Chile, the Maldives, and Sri Lanka have had the strongest recovery in arrivals, with each exceeding 150 percent of their 2019 levels.
PATA’s predictive modeling considers such factors as geopolitical uncertainty, climate-related disruptions, evolving aviation and visa policies, and rapid digital and AI-driven transformation across the tourism economy.
China, Hong Kong, the United States, South Korea, Canada and Mexico continue to rank among the region’s leading source markets, according to PATA. “Destinations are encouraged to diversify source markets and strengthen public–private collaboration to build greater resilience,” the report advised.
For outbound travel, China, the United States, and Türkiye are projected to remain the top three destinations through 2028.
“The results reflect not only the pace of recovery across destinations, but also the deeper structural changes transforming the tourism economy,” said report author Haiyan Song, a professor in the School of Hotel and Tourism Management at Hong Kong Polytechnic University.
