Despite record domestic travel, the U.S. travel industry is losing international visitors and seeing overseas spending decline.
According to a Nov. 5 forecast from the U.S. Travel Association (USTA), international visitor spending (adjusted for inflation) is projected to finish 2026 down 6.3%, at $163 billion—a loss of nearly $11 billion compared with 2025.
Overall inflation-adjusted U.S. travel spending is also expected to slip 0.7% to $1.35 trillion, despite a projected record 2.44 billion domestic trips. Rising costs are adding pressure, with travel prices forecast to increase 7.2%, more than twice the overall inflation rate.
“The election is over, but the economic stakes are only getting higher,” said Geoff Freeman, the USTA’s President and CEO, in a media statement.
International arrivals to the U.S. are projected to fall 14.6% from 2019 levels, to 67.8 million in 2026, while France is expected to see a 23.1% increase, Spain 27.7% and Japan 40.7%.
Worldwide, international arrivals are forecast to grow 11.7% over the same period, underscoring the challenge facing U.S. destinations competing for overseas visitors.
The U.S. share of global long-haul arrivals has already dropped from 10.3% in 2019 to 7.7% in 2026 and is expected to fall further to 7.1% by 2030. International arrivals are not forecast to return to pre-pandemic levels until 2030.
Travel supports more than 15 million U.S. jobs and generates $92 billion in state and local taxes. The USTA is urging the federal government to make the country more competitive, including restoring full funding for Brand USA, expanding visa processing and reducing unnecessary entry barriers.
The association has also backed a goal of attracting 100 million international visitors annually by 2030. Reaching that target could generate an additional $68 billion in annual visitor spending and support more than 350,000 jobs.
“The current Congress must keep America moving this holiday season. The next Congress must help America compete,” Freeman said. “We have the opportunity to deliver a better travel experience for Americans and bring more international spending and jobs back to our communities. Standing still is not a strategy.”
