Spiking fuel prices resulting from the war in the Middle East may be driving up the cost of airline tickets, but the International Air Transport Association (IATA) still has rosy projections for long-term trends in air travel.
On the same day that oil prices hit their highest level since 2023, IATA released its Long‑Term Demand Projections report predicting that global air passenger demand will more than double by 2050.
Air Travel Will See Annual Growth
“The outlook for air travel is positive,” said IATA Director General Willie Walsh in a press statement. “People want to travel and, under all our modeled scenarios, the demand to fly is expected to more than double by mid-century. That is good news for global economic and social development because aviation growth will catalyze opportunities, including jobs, around the world.”
The report predicted that air travel demand will reach 20.8 trillion revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs) under a mid-range growth scenario, based on a projected 3.1 percent annual growth rate between 2024 and 2050. Lower-growth projections would see passenger demand reaching 19.5 trillion RPKs by 2050; the most optimistic projections would see RPKs hitting 21.9 trillion by mid-century.
Walsh said the forecasting “gives governments, industry and energy suppliers a robust basis for long‑term planning. It underscores the need for policy frameworks to support key success enablers such as efficient infrastructure development, market access facilitation, regulatory harmonization and an effective clean energy transition.”
The report identified the fastest‑growing markets as intra‑Africa (4.9 percent), Africa–Asia‑Pacific (4.5 percent), Asia‑Pacific–Middle East (3.9 percent), intra‑Asia‑Pacific (3.9 percent), and Africa–North America (3.8 percent); several Europe‑centered markets were expected to be among the slowest growing.
The report is based on more than half a million observations across around 41,000 directional country flight pairs from 2011 to 2024. The model incorporates variables like population, employment, flight frequencies, and aircraft size, with the most significant demand driver being real Gross Domestic Product.
